India could see its cancer burden rise to nearly 2 million patients by 2040, making it the country with the third-highest prevalence of cancer globally after China and the United States, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office Jitendra Singh told the Rajya Sabha on Thursday.
Responding to supplementaries during Question Hour, Singh said the world currently records about 20 million new cancer patients every year, of which India accounts for approximately 1.4–1.5 million cases annually—around 14–15 lakh. “The figure is expected to go up to almost 2 million by 2040 or so, which means nearly 20 lakh. We stand at number 3, after China and the USA, as far as the prevalence of cancer is concerned,” he informed the House.
Shift from infectious to lifestyle and age-related cancers
Explaining the reasons behind the rising cancer load, Singh said India has undergone a major shift in its disease profile over recent decades. Until the 1980s, the country was primarily grappling with communicable diseases, after which non-communicable diseases such as cancer and heart disease began to dominate. “As of today, we are beset with both,” he noted, warning that this double burden adds significant pressure on the health system.
He also flagged a worrying trend: cancers that usually appear in later decades of life are now being seen at younger ages. “The irony is that many of these diseases, including cancer, which were earlier happening in the later decades of life, are now happening in the earlier decades. Cancer of a later age can now happen at an earlier age. The same is with heart attacks, which were earlier happening late in life, are now happening at a younger age,” Singh said.
While India often highlights its demographic advantage, with around 70% of the population under 40 years of age, the minister pointed out that the number of citizens aged 60 and above has also increased, contributing to the overall disease burden.
Government push to expand cancer care infrastructure
On the treatment front, Singh said the government has launched an “ambitious programme” to provide cancer facilities in virtually every district hospital across the country. He emphasised that India’s diverse geography and lifestyle patterns mean that cancer types vary by region—for example, head and neck cancers are particularly common in the North-East.
The minister indicated that efforts are underway to strengthen oncology services closer to where people live, so that patients do not have to travel long distances to tertiary centres for basic diagnostics and treatment. However, he did not share specific timelines or budget details during the discussion.
First indigenous HPV vaccine for cervical cancer
Singh also highlighted a key preventive initiative: the development of India’s first HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccine for cervical cancer by the Department of Biotechnology. Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers among women in India, especially in younger age groups, and is strongly linked to persistent HPV infection.
“About the vaccine, the Department of Biotechnology has come out with the first-ever HPV vaccine, which is said to have a preventive role in the prevention of cervical cancers, which are said to be more prevalent among young females in India,” he said. The government, he added, is currently in discussions with the Ministry of Health on “how best to make it available to a larger population at an affordable price or free of cost.”
Singh was responding to a question from Congress MP Rajani Ashokrao Patil, who sought details on concrete steps being taken to ensure the timely availability and affordability of essential cancer medicines for underprivileged patients. While the minister underlined the expansion of cancer facilities and the HPV vaccine initiative, issues such as out-of-pocket spending on chemotherapy and targeted therapies, as well as access to newer oncology drugs, were not elaborated upon in his reply.
Younger cancers, older population: a dual challenge
Summing up the challenge, Singh said India is dealing simultaneously with an ageing population, a rising burden of non-communicable diseases and an observable shift of conditions like cancer and heart disease into younger age brackets. This, he implied, calls for a combination of early screening, lifestyle risk reduction, stronger cancer care infrastructure and preventive tools such as vaccines if India is to manage an estimated 2 million cancer patients by 2040 without overwhelming its health system.
