A new Lancet study warns that drastic cuts to U.S. foreign aid could lead to over 1.4 crore preventable deaths by 2030, reversing years of health gains in low- and middle-income countries.
A recent study published in The Lancet has raised concerns that deep funding cuts to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) could cause more than 1.4 crore additional deaths globally by 2030. The estimate includes over 45 lakh children under the age of five. These projections follow the announcement of an 83% reduction in USAID programmes, made in March 2025 by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The cuts, initiated under the current U.S. administration, mark a significant shift away from the country’s long-standing role as the largest global provider of development and humanitarian aid.
According to The Economic Times, between 2001 and 2021, USAID-supported programmes are estimated to have helped prevent over 9 crore deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Around one-third of these lives saved were children. These programmes have historically supported healthcare, nutrition, maternal and child health, disease control, and access to essential services in vulnerable regions.
The researchers modeled two scenarios; one where USAID funding continues at 2023 levels and another based on the announced 83% reduction. The results were striking. If the reductions are implemented, they estimate 1,40,51,750 additional deaths globally by 2030. Among them, 45,37,157 could be children under five.
The analysis also found that in countries receiving significant USAID support, all-cause mortality fell by 15%, and deaths among children under five dropped by 32%. Disease-specific reductions were even more significant: 74% in HIV/AIDS-related deaths, 53% in malaria-related deaths, and 51% in deaths from neglected tropical diseases.
The research team, led by institutions in Brazil and Spain, described the potential impact of the aid cuts as comparable to that of a global pandemic or a major conflict. The study coordinator, Davide Rasella from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, noted that these reductions could stall and possibly reverse decades of progress in global health, particularly in regions already struggling with limited resources.
The study is one of the first comprehensive efforts to evaluate the full effect of USAID funding on mortality outcomes across health, nutrition, and development sectors. It offers a data-driven perspective on how foreign aid shapes public health outcomes on a global scale.
With this warning, the report calls attention to the role of sustained international cooperation in reducing preventable deaths and advancing health equity. As governments reconsider global aid priorities, the findings offer a timely reminder of what is at stake for millions around the world.
