Adverse health impacts linked to the world’s plastics system could more than double by 2040 if current production and pollution trends continue, a new study in The Lancet Planetary Health has warned. The assessment, which examines emissions across the entire plastic lifecycle, finds that greenhouse gases, air-polluting particles, and toxic chemicals released from plastics are already cutting millions of healthy life-years and will increasingly burden an “overwhelmed” planetary and health system.
First global estimate of plastic-linked health loss
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and collaborating institutes in France conducted the first global-scale analysis of health impacts from plastic-related emissions, expressed as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). They modelled emissions from raw material extraction and polymer production through to waste collection, recycling, dumping, open burning and environmental pollution.
Under a business-as-usual scenario—where no major policy, infrastructure or behaviour changes occur—the annual health burden from plastics could rise from about 2.1 million DALYs in 2016 to 4.5 million DALYs in 2040, more than doubling the harm in just 24 years. Overall, the plastics system could be responsible for around 83 million healthy life-years lost globally between 2016 and 2040, driven by global warming, air pollution and toxicity-related diseases.
Greatest harms from production and open burning
The study found that the worst health impacts arise at two key points in plastics’ lifecycle: primary plastics production and open burning of waste. Emissions at these stages contribute to planet-warming greenhouse gases, fine particulate pollution and a mix of toxic chemicals linked to cancers and other non-communicable diseases.
Researchers noted that overall plastic production continues to increase and may not peak until after 2100, meaning that without intervention, environmental and health burdens will continue to escalate for decades. This aligns with wider evidence that plastic-related chemicals and microplastics are contributing to respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular disease and potential reproductive and developmental harms.
Call for deep cuts in virgin plastic
Using their lifecycle framework, the authors argue that incremental tweaks will not be enough and recommend “deep reduction” in primary (virgin) plastic production, particularly for non-essential uses. They say policies must address upstream drivers—how much plastic is produced and with what chemistry—rather than focusing only on end-of-pipe solutions like waste management.
The model is designed as a flexible tool that can be updated with new data and used to compare plastics with alternative materials, helping policymakers judge which substitutions actually reduce health and environmental harm. However, the researchers warn that non-disclosure of chemical formulations in many plastic products still “severely limits” the precision of such assessments and the design of effective regulation.
Global Plastics Treaty and policy momentum
The findings arrive as more than 175 countries work to negotiate a Global Plastics Treaty aimed at tackling pollution across the full lifecycle of plastics. The new health-focused evidence is expected to add urgency to calls for binding limits on virgin plastic production, stronger chemical controls and global standards that consider human health alongside environmental goals.
The authors argue that a globally coordinated, full-lifecycle approach is “crucial” to protect health, warning that without decisive action, plastics-related emissions will continue to drive global warming, air pollution, toxicity-related cancers and other non-communicable diseases well into the next century.
