Swiss drugmaker Roche has advanced its experimental obesity therapy CT-388 into late-stage clinical trials, signalling its intent to compete directly with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in the fast-expanding weight-loss market. The move marks a critical milestone for Roche, which entered the obesity drug space through its acquisition of U.S. biotech Carmot Therapeutics in late 2023.
Roche’s decision comes amid growing investor interest in obesity therapies, which analysts estimate could generate $150 billion in annual revenues globally by the early 2030s. The company’s shares rose 2.8 per cent following the announcement, outperforming the broader European healthcare index. Roche had already sparked market attention earlier when it reported significant weight-loss outcomes from an early-stage trial of CT-388, which prompted a 5 per cent surge in its stock price.
At an investor briefing in London, Roche executives underscored their ambition to become a top-three player in the global obesity treatment market within the next decade. Teresa Graham, head of Roche’s pharmaceutical division, noted that the company is pursuing a diversified pipeline of six drug candidates for obesity and related conditions such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Of these, three are projected to achieve blockbuster status with annual sales exceeding $1 billion each, provided they successfully reach the market.
The company emphasized the unique dynamics of the obesity segment, highlighting that much of the market remains cash-driven, with patients paying directly for treatment due to limited insurance coverage in many regions. This reality, Roche said, could shape pricing, reimbursement, and patient adoption strategies as new entrants attempt to secure market share.
In addition to CT-388, Roche has expanded its pipeline through strategic acquisitions. Earlier this year, it acquired Zealand Pharma’s experimental weight-loss drug petrelintide in a deal valued at up to $5.3 billion. It has also strengthened its leadership by appointing Morten Lammert, formerly with Novo Nordisk, as global therapeutic area head for cardiovascular, renal, and metabolism, with a mandate to oversee the commercial strategy for its obesity franchise.
The competitive landscape remains dominated by Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide products and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, both of which have transformed obesity management with strong clinical outcomes and rapid adoption. Roche, however, sees an opportunity to diversify treatment options and capture demand across geographies, particularly as obesity prevalence continues to rise worldwide. Current estimates suggest more than one billion people globally are affected by obesity, making it one of the most pressing public health challenges of the decade.
With a Phase III trial now underway, Roche is positioning itself to join the leading ranks of pharmaceutical firms shaping the future of obesity treatment. If successful, its late-stage assets could open new competitive frontiers in a therapeutic area that has rapidly evolved from niche to mainstream within just a few years.
